The threat of 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, proposed by the U.S. President, has resulted in a "pause" for 30 days.

In this timeline, Canada will be required to show a serious response to the border issues of people illegally crossing into U.S., and also the passing of fentanyl into the U.S. from Canada. The Canadian government has taken solid measures to do this.

A similar response to the 25% proposed tariffs on Mexico, for southern U.S. border, also resulted in a 30 day pause.

It is essential that Canada would look into protecting its citizens from both illegal immigration and fentanyl drugs, quite apart from the U.S. request. This may be a long overdue response from the Canadian government, working on behalf of Canadians.

Meantime, there is a sense that a rupture of good relations between the U.S. and Canada occurred. That kind of easy trust may take time to rebuild. That said, it's important to keep strong connections.

However, the much vaunted idea of inter-provincial trade is long overdue. If this is the outcome of the initial tariff threat, that is definitely something that each province needs to address. If not done, then the provinces have misunderstood the importance of such a shift.

After a few days, while the dust settles, I will comment on current local market conditions and note any repercussions. Keep an eye, meantime, on our currency.

Lovely February, usually a traditional coastal reminder of the coming Spring, is visiting our coastal region wearing its Winter face. An Arctic Front is being forecast, with significant snow for Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands. No one is ever ready for this weather downturn, especially after a Spring-like January. That said, it might only last a week...definitely a soft version of a real Winter.

It's difficult to suggest a usual first day of a new month market report, this time around. Threatened tariffs from U.S. will affect Canada if put in place. February 1st was stated as the date they would kick in. As soon as an outcome is known, will make my "early month report".

Meantime, listing inventory remains exceedingly low. Prices have remained relatively stable. After two and a half years of buyer inaction, sales did slowly begin in last quarter of 2024, with projections that this activity would continue in 2025.

The tariff issue with Canada's largest trading partner is the wild card item. More later!

Changing Market Conditions

Real estate markets are not static items...they change (and the shifts can be rapid), as different elements come to the fore.

2024 saw renewed sales in October, November, December...with projections for 2025 mentioning continuing low inventory and potential for resulting price increases.

Since then, the early days of 2025 have seen the prime minister stepping down, a Liberal party seeking a leader replacement, and an understanding that all this will result in a Spring federal election.

At the same time, the incoming president of the U.S., our biggest trading partner, appears to be serious about his 25% tariff hit for Canada. The premiers are not of one voice regarding response, and B.C.'s premier acknowledges that such tariffs would decimate the B.C. economy. Meanwhile, the absence of a leader/prime minister role federally means no unified voice for negotiations.

These early days of 2025 are showing mixed signals, and it may take until late April or May to see coherent outcomes in real estate activity.

The diminishing value of the Canadian dollar might be one reason owners are not wanting to be sellers...as a way of preserving capital through a real estate investment.

The Bank of Montreal (BMO) is stating that real estate outcomes may not improve markedly until 2029. Different reasons are given. Again, projections and trends can change quickly in any market-driven sector, and these concepts are not static reports...it is opinion.

Meantime, low inventory & buyer reluctance make it difficult for marketing decisions by realtors...and various marketing venues are noting less uptake. The year has opened with unexpected shifts...always interesting.

Changing Market Conditions

Real estate markets are not static items...they change (and the shifts can be rapid), as different elements come to the fore.

2024 saw renewed sales in October, November, December...with projections for 2025 mentioning continuing low inventory and potential for resulting price increases.

Since then, the early days of 2025 have seen the prime minister stepping down, a Liberal party seeking a leader replacement, and an understanding that all this will result in a Spring federal election.

At the same time, the incoming president of the U.S., our biggest trading partner, appears to be serious about his 25% tariff hit for Canada. The premiers are not of one voice regarding response, and B.C.'s premier acknowledges that such tariffs would decimate the B.C. economy. Meanwhile, the absence of a leader/prime minister role federally means no unified voice for negotiations.

These early days of 2025 are showing mixed signals, and it may take until late April or May to see coherent outcomes in real estate activity.

The diminishing value of the Canadian dollar might be one reason owners are not wanting to be sellers...as a way of preserving capital through a real estate investment.

The Bank of Montreal (BMO) is stating that real estate outcomes may not improve markedly until 2029. Different reasons are given. Again, projections and trends can change quickly in any market-driven sector, and these concepts are not static reports...it is opinion.

Meantime, low inventory & buyer reluctance make it difficult for marketing decisions by realtors...and various marketing venues are noting less uptake. The year has opened with unexpected shifts...always interesting.