Emergency Powers Bill

The B.C. Provincial government has just brought in a draft bill (March 13th) giving itself extensive emergency powers, in order to be able to act unilaterally to respond to potential further tariffs from U.S. This would allow the Premier to act without any legislative oversight. It has had first reading.

The issue and impacts of proposed tariffs are worrying, and they will cause disturbance to the way things were being done, but they do not fall into the category of war or global pandemic.

This is a worrying development by a premier who is in a minority position, without the deal he struck yesterday with the two elected Greens, to support his NDP. This unnecessary bill will be in place until May 2027...unless gov't decides to extend it. This is a very serious thing, covers many things, and is not perhaps limited to tariffs responses. The premier should call an election and let this be up to the electorate. This bill will allow the premier to be the sole decider of all things going forward.

Canada’s Next Prime Minister

Federally, on March 14th, the new leader of the Liberal party will be sworn in as Prime Minister, and his cabinet choices will also be sworn in. It is expected that he will call for an election, before the prorogued parliament reconvenes at end of March. We will then hear his ideas about negotiation with the U.S. President.

The premiers of the provinces are dealing with various specific and differing provincial issues and therefore are unable to speak broadly for the country itself. It will take time to begin interprovincial trade...long standing barriers in place between each province have to be removed. This does not happen quickly.

Federal Uncertainty Stalls Real Estate Momentum

In the meantime, across Canada, people are treading water about real estate decisions, and are again taking a wait and see response. The uptick in markets in October, November, December, January began to slow in February...due to uncertainty. If there is an early federal election, it may take until late May to see the pattern of the 2025 marketplace appear.

At the moment, locally, low inventory continues and prices remain relatively stable. Listings are up in Vancouver, which has been the main source of our buyers since 2016. A desire for the safety of a rural lifestyle and a preservation of capital (a currency concern) are still the two main drivers of action here. A pause in activity has once more developed.

Stay Tuned!!!

BOC Interest Rate Cut

The Bank of Canada cut the key interest rate this morning by a further 25 basis points. The key rate is now 2.75%. Part of the BOC decision to reduce was affected by the current tariffs from U.S. and resulting retaliatory responses from Canada. The impact of same is still unknown.

The BOC in both 2023 and 2024, according to business pundits, was alerting the federal government that there were no measures in place to grow the Canadian economy. This lack of attention to Canada's economy was apparently in place throughout Trudeau's lengthy leadership. Business minded pundits were also speaking consistently about this.

By changing the face of the leader, the federal Liberal party is hoping to continue as the party in power, going forward. Mark Carney also advised Trudeau, and was close to his policies...as was Christya Freeland (who also ran for Leader)

The Blackberry?

Canadians generally are an innovative group and many interesting opportunities have been created here. (What was the story on BlackBerry?).

Have the various innovations been supported and encouraged to grow/benefit Canada? Did the companies move to U.S. in order to benefit from their less regulated and more supportive stance? Hmmm...

I wonder about the retaliatory and angry response to the U.S. tariffs shift...tourism is one of the key financial outcomes right across Canada. The fuss is not at the citizen level and yet responses seem to target same. If tourism drops because Americans are nervous about visiting, then it is Canadians who will suffer. Your thoughts?

The best negotiations are not about retaliations, but about a seeking of ways to arrive at a productive middle place. Is that happening?

What Will Parliament Do?

At the moment, many things are being stated by Trudeau's cabinet. That is the "past". Parliament is not sitting. The new leader has not chosen his cabinet (which is the “present”). We should be hearing from them, and the prorogued parliament (done by Trudeau) needs to re-open. The opposition parties (3 of them) need to speak to these issues. An election should be called ASAP and the Canadian population’s voice will then be heard. (Ontario’s premier, Doug Ford, was wise to pull back his initial angry response earlier today and to call for a lowering of the temperature).

A real negotiation needs to take place at the federal level. Who's in charge right now? Just my "thinking out loud" thoughts...welcome yours!

Who will assume the new role of Prime Minister?

So, the forecasted outcome has been settled. Today, Mark Carney won the Liberal leadership "race" to replace Trudeau. He will also assume the role of Prime Minister.

It is expected that he will call for an immediate election. After being prorogued by Trudeau, the parliament will convene again March 27-29.

By changing the face of the leader, the federal Liberal party is hoping to continue as the party in power, going forward. Mark Carney also advised Trudeau, and was close to his policies...as was Christya Freeland (who also ran for Leader)

The U.S. tariffs issue will affect Canada.

Unfortunately, the federal government was not seeking economic health in the past several years of being in power. The current head of the BOC (Bank of Canada) had been trying to alert the party in power of this disturbing fact in both 2023 and 2024.

It's also odd that it's only now that long-standing barriers to inter-provincial trade are being discussed. This inability to trade between provinces has nothing to do with tariffs.

Some provinces may be more affected than others, but the usual way of doing business has changed. Reciprocal tariffs will be in place. April 2nd has been mentioned as the date this will begin. More later...

(Real estate updates from real estate boards are always one to two months behind. Transactions need to close in order to be counted in a month’s outcomes. In March, it is the January and/or February stats that are reported.

Today, on March 4th, the U.S. tariffs on Canada began. Canadian business leaders are of the opinion that the proposed counter retaliatory tariffs from Canada are political and not necessarily productive. The outcome of tariffs for each province will be different and are not yet fully understood.

Below, is the Vancouver Board February market report. Since 2016, the main buyer profile on Salt Spring has been a purchaser from Vancouver).

After a 46 per cent year-over-year increase of new listings in January, the number of newly listed properties on the MLS® in Metro Vancouver* rose more moderately in February helping keep market conditions in balanced territory.

The Greater Vancouver REALTORS® (GVR) reports that residential sales in the region totalled 1,827 on Metro Vancouver's Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in February 2025, an 11.7 per cent decrease from the 2,070 sales recorded in February 2024. This total was 28.9 per cent below the 10-year seasonal average (2,571).

"After the rush of new listings in January, home sales and new listings in February were closer to historical averages, which has positioned the overall market in balanced conditions,” Andrew Lis, GVR’s director of economics and data analytics said. “With a potential Bank of Canada rate cut on the table for mid-March, homebuyers may find slightly improved borrowing conditions while enjoying the largest selection of homes on the market since pre-pandemic times."

There were 5,057 detached, attached and apartment properties newly listed for sale on the MLS® in February 2025. This represents a 10.9 per cent increase compared to the 4,560 properties listed in February 2024. This was 11.6 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (4,530).

The total number of properties currently listed for sale on the MLS® system in Metro Vancouver is 12,744, a 32.3 per cent increase compared to February 2024 (9,634). This is also 36.4 per cent above the 10-year seasonal average (9,341).

• Across all detached, attached and apartment property types, the sales-to-active listings ratio for February 2025 is 14.8 per cent.
• By property type, the ratio is 10.7 per cent for detached homes, 18.5 per cent for attached, and 16.8 per cent for apartments.

Analysis of the historical data suggests downward pressure on home prices occurs when the ratio dips below 12 per cent for a sustained period, while home prices often experience upward pressure when it surpasses 20 per cent over several months.

"Balanced market conditions typically bring a flatter price trajectory, and we've seen prices across all segments remain in a holding pattern for the past few months,” Lis said. "But with the active spring season just around the corner, it will be interesting to see whether buyers take advantage of some of the most favorable market conditions seen in years, and whether sellers change their willingness to bring their properties to market."

The MLS® Home Price Index composite benchmark price for all residential properties in Metro Vancouver is currently $1,169,100. This represents a 1.1 per cent decrease over February 2024 and a 0.3 per cent decrease compared to January 2025.

Sales of detached homes in February 2025 reached 477, a 14.8 per cent decrease from the 560 detached sales recorded in February 2024. The benchmark price for a detached home is $2,006,100. This represents a 1.8 per cent increase from February 2024 and is virtually unchanged compared to January 2025.

Sales of apartment homes reached 976 in February 2025, a 10.6 per cent decrease compared to the 1,092 sales in February 2024. The benchmark price of an apartment home is $747,500. This represents a 2.8 per cent decrease from February 2024 and a 0.1 per cent decrease compared to January 2025.

Attached home sales in February 2025 totalled 359, a 10.9 per cent decrease compared to the 403 sales in February 2024. The benchmark price of a townhouse is $1,087,100. This represents a 1.2 per cent decrease from February 2024 and a 1.7 per cent decrease compared to January 2025.

Wow...it's meteorological Spring today, the first of March. This begins the seasonality that is treasured on the great Pacific Northwest Coast: early Spring, Spring, Summer, early Fall. March Break (mid-March) to Canadian Thanksgiving (mid-October) are key seasons for Salt Spring and the Gulf Islands.

The islands real estate market continues to follow the trends of the past two plus years: lack of inventory and relatively stable pricing. The main buyer profile has continued to be a Vancouver/Lower Mainland purchaser.

The reasons for seeking a Gulf Islands/Salt Spring Island property are two-fold: one, a desire to leave urban for rural (to be self-sufficient). There also continues to be an interest in preservation of capital through a real estate purchase in a unique area...emphasizing a currency concern.

There is not a lot of choice for a buyer. Most owners are not wanting to be sellers. There is always opportunity, though, and some buyers may need to consider shared ownership models as a way into a market that rarely sees first time buyers.

The outcome of the Islands Trust governance model (put in place in 1974, by the provincial government) was to cap growth through strict zoning/bylaws restrictions. It's important for buyers to read about the Islands Trust online...to pay attention to those bylaws/zoning restrictions...and to also look at the Official Community Plan and to Development Permit Area restrictions. These can supersede the original bylaws. It's important to understand the community "rules" before buying.

At the moment, there are approximately 95 listings (all property types...residential, land, commercial) on the MLS system. In a more balanced market, there would be around 380 listings. Lack of inventory remains the issue, and can lead to buyer hesitations.

2024 saw the beginning of many societal changes and 2025 appears to be continuing these shifts. It can be both alarming and energizing, when one encounters serious changes. We don't get to choose our "time", though...just our reaction to it.

The current referencing to potential U.S. reciprocal tariffs has reminded Canadians of their inability to trade between provinces. This is something that needs to be done. The lack of this has nothing to do with outside tariffs. It makes no sense to keep provinces isolated from each other, economically.

In B.C., business groups have recently come up with a plan to support economic pro-growth options. They point out that both provincially and federally there have been no-growth policies for at least a decade and that has nothing to do with outside tariffs either. Hmmmm......

The flexing of U.S. policies that emphasize that country's outcomes could also benefit Canada's rethink about our own dynamics. So many talented Canadians may have moved south in past years, as Canada did not offer the same opportunities. What were our governments doing?

The concern over the impact of proposed reciprocal tariffs, from our biggest trading partner, has brought forward many different "forecasts" about the economy, going forward. Real estate is one of the pillars of economic health in Canada, and the spectrum of current forecasts ranges from "we will continue to see slow growth" to "we will see a correction/downturn". Many scenarios talk about a softening of sales and lowering of prices, with an improving trend in 2028.

These are the same people who were insisting that the covid shutdowns of early 2020 would cause a crash and then we ended late 2020/into 2021 with "over ask" bidding wars and an erasing of inventory...plus dramatic price increases.

Our lower dollar is attracting interested U.S. buyers...although the federal government ban on foreign buyers (brought in on January 1, 2023 and put in place until January 1, 2025...then extended till January 1, 2027) may be in place, there are many exemptions and it doesn't apply to land or to commercial options. (The ban was brought in to help solve the lack of housing dilemma).

Lots to be concerned about...this month we will find out who will replace Trudeau and also whether there will be an early federal election. We will hear the budget from the provincial government and learn about their plan to create economic strength for B.C. The question of tariffs will be answered. And so forth and so on..... It is difficult to point to a trend at this exact moment. It may take until late April or mid-May to understand the tone of the 2025 market.

Meantime: it's a good plan to take advantage of this seasonal awakening, to enjoy the beauties of the natural world that are erupting all around us, to remember to get out and about (beachcombing, hiking, picnics, tastings, al fresco dining, farmers markets, kayaking, art gallery openings, spa retreats, sailing adventures, theatre discoveries, and day trips to companion islands....in other words, to remember to live...and to simply and calmly breathe).

Opportunity always exists...we just need to be looking. And your thoughts are? Always welcome!

The threat of 25% tariffs on Canadian goods, proposed by the U.S. President, has resulted in a "pause" for 30 days.

In this timeline, Canada will be required to show a serious response to the border issues of people illegally crossing into U.S., and also the passing of fentanyl into the U.S. from Canada. The Canadian government has taken solid measures to do this.

A similar response to the 25% proposed tariffs on Mexico, for southern U.S. border, also resulted in a 30 day pause.

It is essential that Canada would look into protecting its citizens from both illegal immigration and fentanyl drugs, quite apart from the U.S. request. This may be a long overdue response from the Canadian government, working on behalf of Canadians.

Meantime, there is a sense that a rupture of good relations between the U.S. and Canada occurred. That kind of easy trust may take time to rebuild. That said, it's important to keep strong connections.

However, the much vaunted idea of inter-provincial trade is long overdue. If this is the outcome of the initial tariff threat, that is definitely something that each province needs to address. If not done, then the provinces have misunderstood the importance of such a shift.

After a few days, while the dust settles, I will comment on current local market conditions and note any repercussions. Keep an eye, meantime, on our currency.

Lovely February, usually a traditional coastal reminder of the coming Spring, is visiting our coastal region wearing its Winter face. An Arctic Front is being forecast, with significant snow for Vancouver Island and the Gulf Islands. No one is ever ready for this weather downturn, especially after a Spring-like January. That said, it might only last a week...definitely a soft version of a real Winter.

It's difficult to suggest a usual first day of a new month market report, this time around. Threatened tariffs from U.S. will affect Canada if put in place. February 1st was stated as the date they would kick in. As soon as an outcome is known, will make my "early month report".

Meantime, listing inventory remains exceedingly low. Prices have remained relatively stable. After two and a half years of buyer inaction, sales did slowly begin in last quarter of 2024, with projections that this activity would continue in 2025.

The tariff issue with Canada's largest trading partner is the wild card item. More later!

Changing Market Conditions

Real estate markets are not static items...they change (and the shifts can be rapid), as different elements come to the fore.

2024 saw renewed sales in October, November, December...with projections for 2025 mentioning continuing low inventory and potential for resulting price increases.

Since then, the early days of 2025 have seen the prime minister stepping down, a Liberal party seeking a leader replacement, and an understanding that all this will result in a Spring federal election.

At the same time, the incoming president of the U.S., our biggest trading partner, appears to be serious about his 25% tariff hit for Canada. The premiers are not of one voice regarding response, and B.C.'s premier acknowledges that such tariffs would decimate the B.C. economy. Meanwhile, the absence of a leader/prime minister role federally means no unified voice for negotiations.

These early days of 2025 are showing mixed signals, and it may take until late April or May to see coherent outcomes in real estate activity.

The diminishing value of the Canadian dollar might be one reason owners are not wanting to be sellers...as a way of preserving capital through a real estate investment.

The Bank of Montreal (BMO) is stating that real estate outcomes may not improve markedly until 2029. Different reasons are given. Again, projections and trends can change quickly in any market-driven sector, and these concepts are not static reports...it is opinion.

Meantime, low inventory & buyer reluctance make it difficult for marketing decisions by realtors...and various marketing venues are noting less uptake. The year has opened with unexpected shifts...always interesting.

Changing Market Conditions

Real estate markets are not static items...they change (and the shifts can be rapid), as different elements come to the fore.

2024 saw renewed sales in October, November, December...with projections for 2025 mentioning continuing low inventory and potential for resulting price increases.

Since then, the early days of 2025 have seen the prime minister stepping down, a Liberal party seeking a leader replacement, and an understanding that all this will result in a Spring federal election.

At the same time, the incoming president of the U.S., our biggest trading partner, appears to be serious about his 25% tariff hit for Canada. The premiers are not of one voice regarding response, and B.C.'s premier acknowledges that such tariffs would decimate the B.C. economy. Meanwhile, the absence of a leader/prime minister role federally means no unified voice for negotiations.

These early days of 2025 are showing mixed signals, and it may take until late April or May to see coherent outcomes in real estate activity.

The diminishing value of the Canadian dollar might be one reason owners are not wanting to be sellers...as a way of preserving capital through a real estate investment.

The Bank of Montreal (BMO) is stating that real estate outcomes may not improve markedly until 2029. Different reasons are given. Again, projections and trends can change quickly in any market-driven sector, and these concepts are not static reports...it is opinion.

Meantime, low inventory & buyer reluctance make it difficult for marketing decisions by realtors...and various marketing venues are noting less uptake. The year has opened with unexpected shifts...always interesting.