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Market Analysis

Current Market Conditions

Copyright, Li Read, 2007

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February, 2007.

I noted, in the latter days of 2005, a "cooling" period. This "resting phase" translated into most of 2006.

It's normal, in the middle of a market cycle, whether it's in the stock market side of investment or in the "hard asset" (i.e. real estate) side of capital growth & protection, to find these "treading water" moments.

I called it the "plateau period". It was stable, but inactive, and yet there was no sense of "dipping". Listing inventory remained "thin". In the main, listings came onto the market through death, divorce, or moves to assisted living. Most owners preferred not to be sellers, unless they "had to", then.

A static moment in sales, however, doesn't make sellers who must sell very happy, as it's human to wish for a desired result, as soon as we make that decision for a particular outcome. It doesn't make real estate companies very happy, either, as they need sales to keep their businesses running smoothly. This also filters down to individual realtors, who are under pressure, by their companies, to bring in those sales. A formerly standard practice, in real estate, was to drop prices, in an effort to jumpstart activity.

If, however, there is a reluctance on the part of a buyer, to perform a transaction, nothing will occur. On Salt Spring Island, and the Southern Gulf Islands, which have evolved into a secondary home marketplace, where the decision to buy a second or third home is totally at the discretion of the buyer, nothing will take place anymore quickly than what that buyer will decide.

In a secondary home market, where no one "has to" do anything, the decision to purchase is always at the discretion of the buyer -- they are in charge of the "where" and the "when". There is no propeller to action, either. They have a lot of choice, they look in many places, including on the Coast, generally, and so one has to sell the Island first, before one can sell a property on it. Why here? Why not there? Profound questions!

Time, then, is a component in such a marketplace, regardless of market cycle, in any transaction. In having evolved into a mainly out of province buyer profile, the Islands have become recipient marketplaces, and one has to wait for the buyer's decision as to this "where" and this "when". The seller and the realtor are not in control of the end result of the process, at all.

Artificial price reductions, then, will not aid this kind of a buyer profile, in this kind of a marketplace, to make a decision. The decisions are to do with lifestyle issues, and so traditional real estate marketing methods no longer appear to "work", particularly in a non- primary residence area.

In the "resting period" from end of 2005 to end of 2006, it may have been misunderstood,by some local realtors, as a dipping in the market. Not so. Markets follow rhythms, and middle periods are characterized by inaction. It's a push/pull/push/pull pattern, and it's normal, as people, to stop for a moment, after a superlative rise up. It doesn't mean that the market has stopped, or is in decline, but simply that it's quietly breathing, in place. After such a breathing space, there is usually another brisk rise.

This may be what we are going into, then, in 2007. It may be that 2007, in retrospect, will be the year of substantial price rises. Locally, if it hadn't been for the 16 severe storms that affected our area, between Nov. 20th, 2006 and January 18, 2007, which prohibited travel, we may have seen more sales transactions at the close of the year.

What we do know, now, is that there is a surge of interest, once more, in good properties in protected investment areas.

On Salt Spring Island, and the Southern Gulf Islands, we enjoy that protected investment, as a result of the Islands Trust's preserve & protect mandate, that is our form of government, here. Growth is strictly controlled by severe zoning/density controls. This is also a recipe for "high ending" an area. It's simple economics -- place a restriction on development, in an area that people want to live in, and you have high price points. Limited supply and continuing high demand are the reality.

It is not appraisers, or tax assessors, or realtors who set prices. It is the buyer. In the case of the Gulf Islands, it's also the outcome of these Islands Trust bylaws, which have been in place since the mid-70s.

Buyers create markets, not sellers or realtors.

It appears, then, that we may be just entering the third portion of a market cycle, and may see, to begin with, a continuing "thin" inventory, plus further price increases, due to this lack of inventory coupled with high buyer demand.

No one knows how long a cycle will last. Perhaps there's another good two to three years of "worthiness" to this current "hard asset" investment cycle. Perhaps it will last a little longer, as no one truly understands what the large sector of retiring boomers will create. In past segments of their passage through society, they completely rewrote all the rules, based solely on the volume of their presence. This may occur again, and we may find the final third of this market cycle will last longer, as their presence is felt.

It's a new year, though, and a different feel to it. It is very buoyant, in this area, with many people arriving, on a daily basis, to view available properties, and offers are being written. There are few new listings coming onstream, to replace these consistent solds.

The "inaction" of 2006, then, appears to have been totally erased, and a more proactive buyer is in our midst.

For more information on the current Salt Spring Island and Southern Gulf Islands market, contact Li Read for the details! Your full time and full service representative, Li's award winning sales record, for the past 18 years, and her strong negotiating skills, can be put to work for you. "See Li for Successful Solutions!"

Call Li today, at: 1-800-731-7131. Email at: liread33@gmail.com

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  • January 2007
  • Entries for 2006
  • Entries for 2005 & Earlier

    Contact Li Read at RE/MAX Salt Spring, 131 Lower Ganges Road, Salt Spring Island, BC, V8K 2T2, Toll-Free 1-800-731-7131